FQ2 2020 product pricing was lower than expected, but product sales volumes remained robust. While the COVID-19 pandemic muted demand for certain products, GVRC expects demand to recover as economic activity normalizes. After making substantial investments in its plants and processes, LSB continues to operate its production assets reliably. Management sees further opportunity to generate marginal EBITDA through targeted capital spending, continued cost discipline, and specific commercial opportunities. The benefit of these initiatives should be fully realized by the end of FY 2021. While LSB’s onerous capital structure remains an overhang on the value of its common equity, management is actively considering refinancing. GVRC sees several plausible scenarios in which the capital structure is overhauled by mid-FY 2022, substantially lowering the cost of capital by addressing expensive debt and preferred equity financing. GVRC revises its target price to $11.15. GVRC believes expectations for continued improvements in operational reliability and productivity coupled with capital structure changes warrant this price target, which is substantially higher than the current price of the common stock.
