The Importance of Investment Discipline
As COVID-19 continued to disrupt economic activity around the world for the majority of Q2, the forward-looking nature of financial markets was on full display as optimism largely pervaded and…
Expect Volatility and Profit from It
Investing in stocks means dealing with volatility. Instead of running for the exits during times of market stress, the smart investor greets downturns as chances to find great investments. You should…
The Silver Lining
COVID-19 took the world by surprise in Q1. In this letter, we will look at how it has affected the markets, and why we are optimistic about the near future.…
Goodbye 2019
2019 Reflections: December was a terrific month for our stock holdings, with our typical stock portfolio rising over 12%. The broad stock market produced a solid result too, increasing 2.9%,…
A Time to be Patient
Outlook: The United States economy is on solid footing, though growing at a modestly slower pace than over the past few years. We think a 2.0% rate of growth is…
How Long Will This Go On?
Outlook: The current economic expansion is now the longest in US history. All indicators suggest the end is not in sight. Although signs of a slowdown have appeared, Fed Chairman…
Déjà Vu
Outlook: Q1 ended on a very positive note with the best quarter of stock performance in many years, despite any substantive economic developments. The US-China trade deal, which was scheduled…
A Year to Forget
Outlook: The letter was penned during the early hours of January 2nd and edited for distribution at day’s end. Be sure to read our post-script below. 2018 ended with a thud.…
Philosophy, Process, People
Outlook: Interest rates continue to rise as the Fed sticks to its mandate of full employment and price stability. Employment is nearly maxed out with 96.3% of workers employed and…
Information Advantage
Outlook: 2018 has been far more volatile than any year in recent memory. Markets continue to be driven by a very narrow group of large companies, nearly all of which…
Price Fluctuates More Than Value
Outlook: 2018 got off to a rocky start with increased market volatility and heightened economic and political uncertainty. Broadly measured, the stock market closed out the first quarter of the…
What’s It Worth?
Outlook: We ring out 2017 with a big smile and sense of relief – no major economic or political upheavals. Equity markets across the globe performed well with notable performance…
Identifying an Inflection Point
Outlook: GDP reports for the past two quarters have been solid despite numerous issues including natural disasters, social unrest, and political drama both here and abroad. Interest rates remain near…
Bonds, Stocks & Interest Rates
Outlook: The economy continues to sputter along at a 1.5% to 2.0% annual rate of growth. Despite massive monetary stimulus provided by the Fed over the past nine years, the…
Bid/Offer Market Pricing
Outlook: The markets began the year on an upward tear. Enthusiasm surrounding the newly elected Trump administration and its presumed market friendly policies, along with a Fed Reserve Bank that…
Research Process
Outlook: Our October letter began thus: More uncertainty lies ahead. Expect increased volatility as the US election draws to a close; including executive change and possibly a change of control…
Price Volatility Revisited
Outlook: More uncertainty lies ahead. Expect increased volatility as the US election draws to a close; including executive change and possibly a change of control in Congress. December 13-14 will…
Market Volatility & Opportunity
The 2nd quarter ended with a thud as the outcome of the Brexit vote surprised nearly everyone. Global markets responded predictably with a sudden, sharp sell-off. As the dust settled…
Short-Term Price Volatility
Market Update & Economic Summary: The year began with significant price volatility. This came as no surprise given the continuing uncertain global economic environment. Consider this, the Central Bank of…
The Not So Efficient Markets
Market Update & Economic Summary: 2015 market results were unremarkable. The DOW 30 returned -2.2%. The S&P 500 returned -0.7%. The broad markets fared less favorably with the average large…